New York Times warns Trump against adventurism toward Iran, says it is not Venezuela

The New York Times published an analysis warning the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump against any military adventurism in the Middle East targeting Iran, emphasizing Tehran's strong deterrence capabilities and urging Washington not to mistake it for Venezuela.

According to the report, when Trump stated in January that he was considering various options against the Iranian government, experts cautioned that any action would be far more complex than operations in Venezuela and could draw the U.S. into a prolonged conflict. The analysis highlighted Iran's extensive military capabilities, including regional allies and strong medium-range ballistic missiles capable of covering the entire region.

Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group told the New York Times: "There is no low-cost, easy, and trouble-free military option regarding Iran." He added that there is a real risk of American lives being lost, a factor likely to influence Trump's calculations amid upcoming congressional midterm elections.

The report noted differences from Venezuela, where airspace was relatively unprotected before a U.S. operation in January, contrasting with Iran's robust air defenses. It cited concerns from Gulf states over potential Iranian counterattacks targeting major Israeli cities, with Israeli interceptor reserves reportedly depleting after over two years of confrontations with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at Vortexa, warned the newspaper that any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would cause a sharp spike in global energy prices.

A senior White House official told Reuters that despite Trump's hawkish rhetoric, there is no full government-wide support for attacking Iran. Trump's advisors and Republican campaign officials urged focus on the economy, a priority emphasized in a recent private meeting with cabinet ministers, which Trump did not attend. Recent U.S. polls indicate widespread public opposition to another Middle East war.