World Bank Report: Afghanistan's Per Capita GDP Drops 5.6% in 1404 Despite 4.8% Growth

A World Bank report published on Wednesday detailed the economic challenges faced by Afghanistan in fiscal year 1404, marked by consecutive shocks that led to a 5.6 percent decline in per capita GDP despite overall growth of 4.8 percent.

The report identified key pressures including reduced foreign aid, the prolonged closure of the Durand Line border with Pakistan, natural disasters and widespread returns of migrants from Iran and Pakistan. Afghanistan's population increased by about 11 percent during the year, largely due to these returns.

Growth was driven by non-agricultural activities and private consumption, but inflation and rising transport and trade costs eroded living standards. Migrant returns have added strain on the labor market, housing and social services.

Looking ahead, the World Bank projects 4 percent GDP growth in fiscal year 1405, fueled by domestic demand, private investment and better integration of returnees. However, it warns of risks from regional instability, potential trade disruptions and crises in the Middle East, with long-term sustainability hinging on peace, stable trade and effective returnee management.