International Crisis Group Warns Escalating Taliban-Pakistan Clashes Risk Prolonged Cycle of Violence

The International Crisis Group warned in a new report that escalating clashes between the Taliban and Pakistan risk spiraling into a prolonged cycle of violence.

The report points to a March 16 airstrike in Kabul suburbs as a turning point. Taliban officials attributed the strike to Pakistan and claimed hundreds of civilians were killed and wounded, a figure not independently verified. Pakistani officials denied targeting civilians, stating the strikes hit military facilities and infrastructure related to armed groups. Independent reports indicate more than 100 people killed, while the United Nations reported at least 143 victims. The Crisis Group described the incident as one of the deadliest amid recent tensions.

Clashes have intensified since late February, including airstrikes, drone attacks and border skirmishes, with both sides accusing each other of initiating the violence.

The root cause lies in activities by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of harboring TTP members responsible for increased attacks on its soil. The Taliban deny the charge and accuse Pakistan of supporting opposition groups. Relations, initially close after the Taliban's 2021 takeover, have since deteriorated into direct clashes.

The Crisis Group highlighted serious humanitarian and economic consequences, including the displacement of more than 100,000 people. Pakistan's military superiority does not guarantee victory, given the rise of drones and asymmetric warfare.

Mediation efforts by Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have failed to produce a sustainable agreement, though both sides announced a temporary reduction in clashes for Eid al-Fitr.

The group urged an immediate return to political dialogue, with mediators cooperating on a framework for de-escalation and addressing security concerns to avert further civilian casualties and risks to regional stability.