Pakistan Uses 'Calculated Pressure' on Taliban in Escalating Clashes, Avoids Targeting Leaders

Tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban have escalated into open conflict, with Pakistan conducting multiple airstrikes in major Afghan cities including Kabul, Kandahar and Balkh. The Taliban have responded with ground and drone attacks.

The United Nations confirmed 143 people were killed in a Pakistani airstrike on a drug treatment center in Kabul, while the Taliban reported 400 victims. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) stated that since late February, between 75 and 212 Afghan civilians have been killed and hundreds more wounded in the fighting.

A recent attack targeted guards of Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada in Kandahar. Inam-ul-Haq, a former Pakistani army general, told Afghanistan International that Pakistan is applying 'calculated pressure' without targeting top Taliban leaders. He said Islamabad consciously avoids strikes on the leadership or severing ties with the regime, instead hitting weapon depots, mid-level commanders and border posts.

Inam-ul-Haq explained that Pakistan fears a power vacuum if senior leaders are killed, which could expand conflicts and destabilize its own Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. He noted there is no organized force to replace the Taliban, and the collapse of its leadership might allow armed groups under Taliban influence to spill into Pakistan, China and Central Asian countries.

Pakistan has not expelled the Taliban delegation from Islamabad, and its embassy in Kabul remains operational. Inam-ul-Haq said Islamabad seeks cooperative networks within the Taliban, such as the Haqqani network, while pressuring less aligned factions. Many fighters along the Durand Line hail from Kandahar and are linked to Akhundzada.

The Diplomat magazine assessed that the Kandahar attack sends a message: Pakistan may directly target the Taliban leadership core if support for anti-Pakistan groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues.