Six Months After Urgent Decree, Silence Surrounds Kunar Dam Project

Six months ago, Hasht-e Subh warned that constructing the Kunar Dam without agreements with Pakistan and comprehensive technical, environmental, and political assessments could lead to new crises for Afghanistan rather than self-sufficiency.

On April 2025, India symbolically suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, increasing political pressure on Pakistan. In October 2025, Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited India, where discussions included Afghan hydropower projects. On October 24, 2025, Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada issued an urgent decree ordering the construction of the Kunar Dam, emphasizing contracts with domestic companies to avoid delays. Days later, India announced readiness to assist with the project.

However, the only advancement was a limited water diversion to the Darunta Dam in December 2025. As of February 2026, no official reports indicate progress on the main Kunar Dam.

Pakistan claims India is pressuring it from both east via the Indus River and west through support for Afghan water projects like the Kunar Dam. Most of the Kunar River's water originates in Pakistan's Chitral region. Restricting flow from Pakistan could render the dam ineffective, lower Kabul River levels, threaten the Naghlu, Mahipar, and Darunta power plants, and impact Jalalabad's agriculture.

Farmers in Chitral and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, across the Durand Line, rely on this water and have close ethnic ties to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. Afghan Taliban, presenting themselves as defenders of Pashtunwali, cannot ignore discontent among these communities.

Domestic companies did not proceed despite the decree's emphasis on local contracts, recognizing risks without technical, financial, and legal guarantees. Investors lack confidence in the Taliban's governance continuity for a multi-billion-dollar project requiring political stability and legal security.

The 845-megawatt Azizi Group power project exemplifies the gap between promises and reality, as Afghanistan's grid is outdated and lacks capacity for such additions without upgrades and new transmission lines.